Tuesday, November 29, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 13

Eagles over the Seahawks
This is probably a crazy pick since the Eagles are a mess and they have to go cross country to Seattle to play. Not an easy place to win even when you have a superior team.

Panthers over the Bucs
I'm fairly disappointed in the development of Josh Freeman this year. He's regressed from last season. In fact it seems like everybody has regressed in Tampa, even the coach. And you know what?---The Bucs missed a great opportunity to bring in Ronde Barber's twin brother Tiki as a running back this year. I know he's mid thirties, hasn't played in 4 years and is a real deuche but at least it would have been interesting. That's a word you can't apply to the Bucs right now. Tiki retired as one of the top two running backs in the game in 2006. Do you realize in his final 3 years he rushed for 1500 yards, 1800 yards , and 1600 yards. That's pretty damn good. If he hadn't been so insufferable and had played a couple more years we'd be talking about it him as one of the all-time greats. However, "what ifs" are not reality. Since we didn't get a chance to see Barber in action again, what we do know is that Tiki's just a really good ex-football player, a failed broadcaster, and the dude who dumped his pregnant wife for a younger chick.

Anyway, back to the game this week....Cam Newton is a beast so I guess I'll go with Carolina based solely on that shallow analysis.

Steelers over the Bengals
This feels like a game the Bengals could win. They are tougher than expected this year and Andy Dalton and A.J. Green represent an amazing draft for them this past spring. Still, this contest is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers are always good at home so I'll go with them. It was funny to listen to the announcers of the game last week almost apologize for the fact that the Steelers are a passing team now. Like it's a sacrilegious thing in Steel Town. Until they get some stars in the backfield, Pittsburgh better utilize Roethlisberger and those receivers he's got. They are the bread and butter right now.

Falcons over the Texans
We'll see if Houston can surprise me 2 weeks in a row. At some point the backup QB situation there has got to bite them. Right now the Falcons are playing well and have enough offensive firepower to compete against the strong Texan defense.

Jets over the Redskins
Mark Sanchez baffles me. He's the new Matt Hasslebeck. Good enough to tease you for awhile but probably not the guy to take you to the promised land.

Colts over the Patriots
..Just seeing if you were paying attention. That would be an amazing upset though. Upset of the decade for me. But no...I'm going with the Pats over the Colts. This line can't be high enough. Sad that this was a marquee matchup every year with Manning. One player is the difference between a playoff team and a potential winless season. Incredible. The Colts were built to pass the ball well and rush the opposing passer. Without the need to score 30 pts or more each week to keep up with Manning, teams can play the Colts anyway they want. And what they want is to crush Indy. So far, it's working.

Dolphins over the Raiders
Miam is showing signs of life.

Broncos over the Vikings
Tebow might be the worst passer I've ever seen. But with the defense playing like they are lately and with Tebow and his backfield running over guys, maybe they can win a couple more before the music stops.

Bears over the Chiefs
Backup QB against backup QB. May the worst QB not win.

Bills over the Titans
frustrating time for Buffalo. What happened to the power of Fitzpatrick's beard? They have crashed and burned after starting with such promise. This is a must win if they hope to get back in contention for a Wild Card spot. QB better shave the beard to get some new karma.

Ravens over the Browns
Some consistency out of Joe Flacco would be a good.

Cowboys over the Cardinals
Arizona has some great fans but watch the stands, there will be loads of Cowboy fans there. Every western state die-hard Cowboy fan shows up in Arizona when the Cowboys come to town.

Packers over the Giants
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants pull this out. Their kind of schizophrenic that way. But the Packers have been so dominant you can't go against them. Their risk taking defense is their achilles heel but if your offense can score 40 every week a few mistakes won't kill you.

49ers over the Rams
The Ram's coach needs to be fired after this season. I had high hopes for Spagnuola but for whatever reason the Rams aren't turning things around. It starts with Bradford. He has to be better than he is. Much better.

Saints over the Lions
Other than the Packers, the Saints are the most entertaining team to watch on tv.
And concerning the MVP debate, unless the Pack falter, there really is no debate. It's Rodgers. But at least Brees has made it a conversation.

Chargers over the Jags
Pretty uninspiring game for a Monday night. The Chargers need to fire Norv Turner and A.J. Smith. How's that Rivers vs. Brees thing working out for you now A.J? I know Brees was hurt during the year San Diego let him go but Smith drafted Rivers to replace Brees before he knew that. He wasn't bringing him back no matter what. I think it's pretty clear the Drew Brees has been the better QB of the two. I love Drew Brees mainly because he's defied everyone's expectations of him. .........Except the Saints, they believed in him and were rewarded for it.

Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 105-67 (61%)

Thursday, November 24, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 12

It's the annual face stuffing event so no time for details about these picks. Pumpkin pie is calling.

Packers over the Lions
Cowboys over the Dolphins
49ers over the Ravens
Jaguars over the Texans
Jets over the Bills
Bengals over the Browns
The battle for Ohio
Falcons over the Vikings
Cardinals over the Rams
Panthers over the Colts
Bucs over the Titans
Raiders over the Bears
Redskins over the Seahawks
Chargers over the Broncos
Patriots over the Eagles
Steelers over the Chiefs
Saints over the Giants

Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 93-63 (60%)

Thursday, November 17, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 11

Jets over the Broncos
I can't see the Broncos getting enough offense to win this. The Jets are no offensive juggernaut either but they should be good for at least 14-17 pts. Right?. I'm thinking something like NY 17 Denver 10.
Update: I just checked the Thursday night score and it looks like I've been Tebowed. Damn you Tim Tebow. .......Wait....Forgive me Tim Tebow. Forgive me. I'm pretty sure you've got more pull with God so I need you on my side.

Packers over the Bucs
The only teams that have a shot at the Packers are those that can score and at the same time have a defense that can produce a few turnovers. I don't see the Bucs at this point with either of those qualities.

Lions over the Panthers
The Panthers haven't looked as explosive as late. Is Newton hitting the rookie "wall"? No big deal, with this being a rebuilding season a nice draft pick would help next year's team.

Jaguars over the Browns
Just give the ball to Maurice Jones Drew.

Raiders over the Vikings
Minnesota is 5th in the league against the run so maybe Michael Bush won't go nuts this week. The Raiders just seem tougher than the Vikes though.

Bills over the Dolphins
Buffalo needs to get going again. I'm extremely impressed with Fred Jackson this year. He's another Kurt Warner type who had to fight to get into the league (ever heard of the NIFL or the UIF?) His career so far in the NFL has been so-so and then comes crazy numbers like he's having now. Doesn't make sense. Too bad he's already 30. Talk about a late bloomer.

Cowboys over the Redskins
Murray, Romo, Dez Bryant, Ware, ----the Cowboys have some explosive guys and the Skins don't. That should be enough in this one.

Ravens over the Bengals
This would be a huge step for Cincy if they could pull out a win in Baltimore. The Ravens haven't lost at home yet this year so I can't give Dalton and the Bengals the nod this week.

49ers over the Cardinals
Sounds weird to say that an Arizona win over San Fran would be a major upset. From year to year, the NFL has the best turnaround stories.

Rams over the Seahawks

Falcons over the Titans
Chris Johnson seems to be coming alive the last couple of weeks but the Titans are so inconsistent they can't be trusted. The Falcons are solid though. By the way, I liked the 4th down "go for it" attitude by Atlanta coach Mike Smith last week. Gutsy. Sure, maybe their defense stops New Orleans and they get the ball back. But I would bet that statistically speaking, the Falcons had a better shot at making that first down than they would have had getting the ball back in OT had they punted. I'll tell you this though, I didn't like the type of play that was called. A misdirection play or even a QB sneak had a better chance than a hand off straight up the gut.

Bears over the Chargers
I really want to pick San Diego here. But they always burn me. Got to go with the hot team here.

Giants over the Eagles
Philly couldn't handle the Giants at home and recent play gives us no reason to expect that they could take them out in NY.

Patriots over the Chiefs
I don't care if ex-Pats brass are holing up now in K.C. They can't play on the field and it's the field where Brady should destroy the K.C. secondary.

Last Week: 5-10
Overall:84-58 (59%)

Saturday, November 12, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 10

Chargers over the Raiders
A Thursday game that I thought would go the other way. Michael Bush torched the San Diego defense. The Raider offensive line deserves a lot of credit this season. McFadden or Bush seem to get their yards each week. For the Charger faithful it should be painfully obvious that Norv Turner is not a head coach that will ever lead a team to the promised land. He's a good coordinator and a mediocre head coach. Time to clean house in San Diego.

Eagles over Cardinals
If the Eagles lose this one the wailing and gnashing of teeth will commence in Philly. They have got to beat a bad Arizona team.

Panthers over Titans
Steve Smith's athleticism is a sight to behold. Cam Newton has been good but it's helped that he's had a receiver that goes up

Bucs over the Texans
My guess is that the Bucs are going to focus on the Texan run game and see if Schaub can beat them.

Dolphins over the Redskins
John Beck makes his return to Miami, going for revenge against the team that let him go. I'm sure the Fins are quaking in their cleats.

Jags over the Colts
Indy's season was over before this season began. I've been trying to find the clip where Manning nearly had his head ripped off a couple of years ago. If anyone has a link to it I'd like to see it. It's hits like that that got Manning where he is today.

Chiefs over the Broncos
Player I most miss this season? It's not Manning, it's Jamaal Charles. That guy was fun to watch last year. K.C. misses him.

Bills over the Cowboys
I think it will be tight. Maybe a field goal difference.

Falcons over the Saints
The one game I want to see this weekend. Should be a good one.

Browns over the Rams
I'm a Ram fan and I don't even want to watch this one.

Steelers over the Bengals
This wouldn't be that much of an upset if Cincy takes out Pittsburgh this week. They are perhaps the most surprising team of the year but seem to be legitimately good.

Ravens over the Seahawks
Last week's victory over the Steelers was impressive. Joe Flacco has been bad this year but you have to hand it to him on that final drive against Pittsburgh; he took a page out of the Roethlisberger textbook.

Giants over the 49ers.
The battle of two surprising QBs. I'm equally surprised with the tough defense San Fran has been playing this year.

Lions over the Bears
This will be a good test to see if Detroit can get it's swagger back.

Patriots over the Jets
I can't see the Pats losing 3 in a row. I mean, I would love it, I just don't think it will happen.

Packers over the Vikings
It's amazing that the Vikes almost went to the Super Bowl a couple of years back. Who knows how long it will take them to contend again and meanwhile the Pack seem set for years to come.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 79-48 (62%)

Saturday, November 05, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 9

Chiefs over the Dolphins
Miami has a better chance than you might think to steal one in K.C. But lately Dolphin football is a lesson in crazy so I'm going with the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Falcons over the Colts
Come on Indy! We need you to bail us out of the endless Andrew Luck/Payton Manning stories that will continue if you keep losing. Nobody wants to watch Luck ride the bench for 3-4 years if Manning heals up by next year. I know that's a big 'if" when you're talking about a neck injury but let's face it, if Manning plays again and the Colts have the number 1 pick, it's nothing but messy.

Saints over the Bucs
New Orleans is home but Tampa always plays the Saints tough so this one could be closer than expected. Who knows what to expect from the Saints? They just lost badly to the Rams last week so all year long we'll wonder which team will show up.

Bills over the Jets
I'm wondering if Plaxico Burress will even play this week with that bad back he has...but if he does I'm also wondering if I should start him in my fantasy league. 3 TDs last week was impressive. Can Sanchez find him again though?

Cowboys over the Seahawks
Demarcus Ware is a monster.

Texans over the Browns
Is Colt McCoy regressing? He should look to his counterpart  this week. Schaub doesn't seem to regress much. On the other hand he doesn't seem to improve much either. He's pretty steady and competent but can't seem to push it to the next level.

49ers over the Redskns
I wonder if the Niner's players ever get bugged about Jim Harbough getting all the credit for their turnaround? As long as they win, probably not.

Titans over the Bengals
I have no idea if Chris Johnson will ever be an elite running back again.It's like asking if Kim Kardashian will ever find love. In both cases, I could care less. Like Kim Kardashian, Johnson is an attention whore and thinks more of himself than than reality says he should. He's a home run hitter but if the big runs are gone, he's not the Titan's go-to guy. But whether Johnson helps Tennessee on Sunday or Javon Ringer does, or Hasselbeck does, I think they take down the surprising Bengals.

Raiders over the Broncos
Michael Bush is a capable fill-in for McFadden but what I'm really interested to see in this game is how Palmer fares at QB now that he has a couple of weeks in the Raider system.

Patriots over the Giants
 Two surprises for me in the leadup to this game. First, Eli Manning is having a really good first half of the season. After the mediocre year Eli had last season I figured maybe we had seen the best of what he had to offer. Apparently not. Second, Tom Brady started hot but has cooled a bit. His off games are still better than half the league. But only half. A lot of guys are throwing the ball well this year.

Cardinals over the Rams
I've lost hope in my Rams. The silver lining this week is that they are playing a team that's played nearly as bad as they have.

Packers over the Chargers
After last week's debacle I think San Diego would rather not see the best team in the league come to town.

Steelers over the Ravens
Supposedly these guys don't like each other. I think that's what makes this rivalry a good one.

Eagles over the Bears
I love watching LeSean McCoy run. To me he's a quicker and tougher version of Brian Westbrook.

Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 71-42 (63%)