Thursday, November 13, 2008

NFL Picks: Week 11

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 93-51 (65%)

This week's picks:

Patriots over the Jets
The Jets have laid 40 points on a couple of teams this season but I don't see it happening in New England against one of the best coached teams in football (As a Patriot hater I had to saw my pinkie finger off after typing that last part).

Falcons over the Broncos
This is a tough one. Matt Ryan has made me a believer but occasionally Jay Cutler can really dice teams up. The difference is one team has shown an ability to keep teams from scoring over 30 points against them. And yes, Mr. creepy eyes Shanahan, I am insinuating something about your defense with that comment.

Eagles over the Bengals
I thought perhaps Andy Reid had surpassed Mike Martz in the "worst game management skills" department until I saw that offensive debacle at the end of the Cards/49ers game on Monday night. Still, Reid consistently prove that he doesn't handle pressure situations very well as evidenced by the end of the Giants game this past week. It's unfortunate because in most respects Reid is a good coach. He does a lot with the talent he has (which is never quite what it should be--also partly his fault) but play calling in critical moments, clock management, etc. is something maybe he ought to think about delegating. As for this week, even though Cincy played Jacksonville tough a couple of weeks ago they shouldn't be able to handle the Eagle offense which is much better than the Jag's.

Packers over the Bears
What is disturbing about the Packers is that I thought they had a good defense. But they allow too many points and too many rushing yards for me to say that now. They are a better team than their record indicates but that doesn't mean much if you don't make the playoffs

Colts over the Texans
Houston always plays Indy tough so this could be really close. Plus, Manning looked downright awful last week. I know some who wrote about how he singlehandely pulled that game out last week but for most of the 4 quarters against the Steelers he was terrible. Manning has never had the most beautiful tight spiral like other QBs have, but he has made up for it with a fairly strong arm and great accuracy. Maybe it's the knees but his throws look very weak and most of them are ducks, especially the long balls. He got lucky last week on a ball that was tipped to Reggie Wayne for a TD. He is underthrowing guys, throwing behind them, or throwing it too high. I have watched a ton of Colt games over the past 4 years and this is a different guy the past couple of seasons. It actually started the season they won the Super Bowl if you want to know the truth. Manning was just not quite what you expected. Amazingly, that season his defense came to the rescue in the post-season and Dallas Clark made some of the most amazing catches I've ever seen. Now fast forward to this season and Manning doesn't have the receiving weapons he used to. Marvin Harrison seems a shell of the Hall of Famer we've come to know. He is slow, dropping balls, and just looks out of sync with Manning. I'm not saying Manning is washed up, but his QB rating is 84 and it hasn't been that low since 2001 (and only the 4th time it's been below 90 in his 11 years). As someone that has rooted for the Colts for years, I'm concerned.

Saints over the Chiefs
Drew Brees is good but until the Saints start playing some decent defense they are not a legitimate contender. -On another note, Herm Edwards, one of the most conservative coaches in the league tries for 2 points to win the game last week. I've piled on him for his conservative offenses in the past so how can I rip him for that? Well, I'll try. Herm, there is being gutsy and then there is being just plain stupid. I know you've got nothing to lose this season because your getting fired anyway, but trying for a 2 point conversion at the end of the game with a lousy offense is crazy. If you want to show that you have some balls, stop sending the punt unit out on 4th and 1 in the other team's territory or going for field goals when you are behind in games and you need TDs. ---How's that? Aww, I can't get mad at Herm....He showed some courage and risk in that situation and with the Chiefs, I'll take it where I can get it.

Dolphins over the Raiders.
Remember last year when we both the Raiders and the Dolphins were a joke? Maybe the Raiders ought to try the Wildcat formation. Miami has a pulse, the Raiders however probably wish Al Davis didn't. (I know.....I'm joking about death and that is wrong. I'm going to Hell. But at least Al will keep me company).

Giants over the Ravens
Should be a slugfest.

Bucs over the Vikings
I can't figure either of these teams out. I know I like watching Adrian Peterson. Hands down the best back in football. Tomlinson supporters might not want to acknowledge it and I'm not saying LT is close to being washed up, but Peterson is the best and has been for the past two seasons.

Panthers over the Lions
The Jags were laughing at the Lions last week. I hope the Panthers can be nice to them. At least wait until their backs are turned before you giggle.

49ers over the Rams
These are both dysfunctional teams. May the best screwed up dudes win.

Cardinals over the Seahawks.
If Warner doesn't lose the ball in the rain, the Cards should win. I like Warner but I think the people calling him an MVP this season are being premature. Same goes for the people saying he's a Hall of Famer. He's had 3 great years and those came with the Rams (plus one decent year in 07 with the Cards). If he continues to excel this year that makes 4 great years. 4 seasons doesn't make somebody a football legend unless it's for 4 years of smoking pot and going in and out of the league. I would say Ricky Williams is a legend in that regard.

Steelers over the Chargers
San Diego should win this because they are the more desperate team and they have a decent offense. But how can you trust their Swiss cheese defense this year?

Titans over the Jags
Tennessee is surprisingly good, Jacksonville is surprisingly bad. That sums up the "hard to figure out" NFL.

Cowboys over the Redskins
Maybe Romo will give Dallas a lift and they will play up to their talent level. Maybe not. But man did the Skins look bad in their last game against the Steelers. A bye week should help but I'm still picking against them this time.

Bills over the Browns
just because they are at home.

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