Thursday, October 16, 2008

NFL Picks: Week 7

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 55-33 (63%)

This weeks Picks:

Bears over the Vikings
Of course this is predicated on the idea that Lovie Smith doesn't pull another dumba** squib kick. I can't begin to tell you how stupid I think the squib kick is. Lovie Smith absolutely lost that game last week for his team by giving the ball to the Falcons near the 40 yard line. I mean how stupid are these coaches sometimes!? I've ranted about this for years going all the way back to when I was a high school kicker. My coach would look at me in situations where there was less than a minute to go in the 2nd or 4th quarter (or when we were facing a dangerous kick returner, and say, "squib it to about the 30 yard line". I'd be thinking in my mind, "what?! are you nuts dipstick?! I'm a high school kicker, I have enough trouble keeping the ball from going out of bounds on a regular kick---how accurate do you think I'm going to be when I'm trying to squib it!!". Then I'd try and squib it and the the other team would end up on the 50 yard line and my coach would yell at me for not placing it in the right spot. It's a squib kick a-hole, there is no control on it. ---Can you tell I'm passionate about this? I've just seen this too many times where a team loses games because somebody some years back made the squib kick a textbook move with less than a minute to go in the 2nd or 4th quarter. The crazy thing about this is coaches follow this textbook move even if a field goal will beat them. They seem to forget that by doing this the other team now only has 25-30 yards to gain for a winning kick. Go back and think about all the games where teams "squib" it on the kickoff and how many times it backfires. And nobody talks about this as being the reason teams lose games (although I heard Wilbon talk about it on PTI-and Jason Whitlock mentioned it in a column too--so kudos for them). Most will talk about the defense letting the team down for allowing the yardage in the final seconds. What about the coach who put them in the position in the first place? Now, maybe Lovie Smith didn't think 11 seconds was enough time for the Falcons to do anything. I agree that the Falcons had to have a perfect throw and catch in order to make the kick with 1 second left. Still, here are my iron clad rules for squib kicking: 1. If a field goal will beat you, never squib the kick unless the time on the clock will run out with the kick runback or on the next play. Obviously 11 seconds is too much as the Falcons proved. I would say around 8 seconds or so left on the clock allow you to pull this type of a kickoff. Otherwise there is only one other time I would recommend a squib kick--2. If a touchdown will beat you , never squib the kick unless there is less than 15 seconds to go. --I can see the value of the squib kick in this situation because a dangerous returner could get lucky and beat you and the odds of that might be higher than a team throwing a TD pass with one play left. In this situation you are only allowing enough time for one play (a hail mary). Those are more rare than kick runback for a TD so this ok. If you leave time for 2 and 3 plays after the squib then you are asking to lose also. --

So there you have it. Coaches should listen to me on this subject and quit following some asinine rule in there heads about the squib kick. This and the idea and that there is some rulebook on when to go for 2 points really get my blood boiling. I'll save the two point thing for later.

Chargers over the Bills
I know Buffalo is at home and if the weather is bad I'd say this might go their way. But the Chargers looked good last week and on paper they are the better team. Of course that hasn't meant much for them this season.

Steelers over the Bengals
Week in and week out we see teams win that shouldn't (except the Lions). But I don't think this will happen with Cincy this week. Steelers take care of business this time.

Packers over the Colts
It's tempting to pick Indy because they looked so good last week. But they have looked so bad for most of the year that I can't pick them on the road against Green Bay.

Titans over the Chiefs
Look, K.C. is not a good team. Tennessee is and unless Kerry Collins turns it over they should win.

Jets over the Raiders
is Favre starting to get comfortable yet? I don't know but they should beat the team run by the worst owner in football.

Cowboys over the Rams
I'd like to think that the Rams are turning a corner and last week's inspiring win will jump start their season. But it ain't happening.

Ravens over the Dolphins
Baltimore's offense sucks. So what's new. The Ravens defense will have to score and stop the Wildcat formation of Miami.

Giants over the 49ers
This shouldn't be close. But then again, the Browns game this past week wasn't supposed to be close either.

Bucs over the Seahawks
I just can't buy into Seneca Wallace.

Redskins over the Browns
This one is tough to pick because the Skins fell apart against my lowly Rams, and the Browns pick apart the best team in the NFL on Monday.

Saints over the Panthers
My gut tells me that Carolina will win this at home. But I like New Orleans better and they in fact should be a better team. This one will be very close I think.

Texans over the Lions
big game. Can you smell the excitement?

Patriots over the Broncos
The Pats are at home and Cassel is like an every other week type of QB. It's that week.

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