NFL Picks Week 4

Picks for the week: 

Will this be the first time referees are actually cheered? (at least until the first call goes against Baltimore)

Ravens over the Browns.   Congrats to Baltimore for taking down the Patriots last week.  Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda, last season in the playoffs.   Though 2011 is not truly avenged until you can take them out in the postseason. Then I'l be ready to bow to my Joe Flacco Bobblehead. (wait....I have a Flacco bobblehead?.  How did that happen?).

Falcons over the Panthers.  I have seen nothing so far this season out of Cam Newton and the Panthers to make me want to pick them in this game. Atlanta looks good.

Patriots over the Bills.  This game is usually an automatic win on their schedule every season. Of course The Pats have already lost a couple that I thought they would win. A weird season so far.

Lions over the Vikings. Minnesota has looked more consistent and steady than the Lions have. Discipline and consistency has plagued this team for a bit now. Schwarz better right that ship or they'll be starting to talk problems at the top soon. This team has too much talent to be wasting it.

Chiefs over the Chargers. One of my favorite running backs in the league, Jamaal Charles, had a breakout game last week. Give this guy a crease and he can exploit it fast.

Seahawks over the Rams.  Imagine if somehow a wildcard playoff spot came down to the last week between Seattle and Green Bay, and because of the win last week the Seahawks grabbed that spot. This ref debacle is not over yet due to the implications down the road.

49ers over the Jets.  San Fran was great last year on the road on the East Coast. I think they do it again. The Jets are a mess (what's new huh?).

Texans over the Titans. Last week Tennessee was part of one of the more interesting games of the season (maybe of the decade so far). Crazy plays over 50-60 yards won it for them but that's not sustainable so they are going to need to show that they can grind it out down the field as well. Tough opponent to do that with this week.

Bengals over the Jags. A.J. Green is a beast.

Dolphins over the Cardinals. Upset of the week. Seems weird to say that about the Cardinals.

Broncos over the Raiders. Rivalry game that's lost its fire since Al Davis has died. His son seems a lot more level headed.

Packers over the Saints. This game blows. I like both of these teams and don't want either one to fall into a hole they can't climb out of for the season. Who do I root for? I think that hole gets deeper for the Saints.
One note on the call from Monday night's game. Although it was a bad call, it wasn't the worst call of all time in terms of the play itself.  What made it egregious was the terrible timing. The point in the game that it happened (deciding the outcome) and the culmination of bad calls from replacement referees gave the call and aftermath an apocalyptic feeling.   And ultimately it gave us regular referees back a week or two earlier (or maybe more).  But the call sucked.

Bucs over the Redskins.  Not sure what to think of either of these teams. Talented yes. Trustworthy no.

Giants over the Eagles.  If I'm Michael Vick, I'm already hurting as I think about the hits I'll take in this game.

Bears over the Cowboys. These two teams (perhaps more than any other two) represent the Jeckyll and Hyde syndrome that some many franchises suffer from. I like Tony Romo and I dislike Jay Cutler so I hope this one goes different than my prediction.

What are we going to whine about this weekend without the replacement referees?.....Oh right.....we'll whine about the real referees.

Last Week: 6-9
Overall: 22-25 (47%)

NFL Picks: Week 3

WEEK 3 PICKS

Bears over the Rams
Chicago is feeling pretty good about themselves this week after getting Michael Bush in the off-season as another option in the backfield. Forte is injury prone and as much as he resented the Bush signing and the touches Bush will take from him, it was a good move for the Bears. I like Bush; he runs hard and is shiftier than you might think.

Browns over the Bills
I was impressed by Brandon Wheedon's ability to bounce back from a dreadful first start in week 1. He was more than respectable, he was actually pretty good. However, Trent Richardson was more than pretty good; he was awesome and gives Brown fans hope that they've got a star in the backfield.  Hope those knees of his are ok.

Cowboys over the Bucs
Which Cowboy team shows up?

Jets over the Dolphins
We don't really have any idea after 2 weeks if these teams are actually any good.  They look like probable 7-9 or 6-10 teams. It was nice to see Reggie Bush flash some old moves this past week. Maybe he's right and he just needed the chance and the right situation to thrive.

49ers over the Vikings
San Fran looks like the team to beat early on.

Saints over the Chiefs
What's that odor? ...oh yeah ...that's desperation in the air.

Bengals over the Redskins
They're in D.C. this week and everyone loves Griffin, but maybe Andy Dalton shows last year wasn't a total fluke.

Lions over the Titans
I just want Chris Johnson to shut up.

Colts over the Jags
Where was rookie receiver Blackmon last week? They need to target those insanely huge hands of his.

Eagles over the Cardinals
Am I crazy to think that the Eagles can't play much worse than they have the past two weeks? They don't have to give back their ugly wins. But they should.

Falcons over the Chargers
Norv Turner is 2 and 0 to start the season. Is the apocalypse next?

Texans over the Broncos
Took us only a week to declare Manning old and armless. Should be a roller coaster with him this season as he tries to get the old magic back.  I've been watching Manning closely for many years and the criticism of his arm strength and inability to throw effectively past 15-20 yards is a valid one. However, the deep pass has not been his strength for awhile now. His previous two seasons before the injury the Colt offense was essentially a grind it out down the field type team. Albeit that grinding was with 5 yard receiver screens, 10 yard outs, and 15 yard slants instead of a running game, but to rip on Manning for not throwing the deep ball well is to misunderstand where he is as a QB in his career. Yes the neck injury has robbed him of arm strength but I think he would have been done throwing deep effectively regardless. Don't count him out though. Manning will figure out what he can and can't do soon enough and there will be an adjustment. He'll want to do what works. If that's 10 yard hooks then so be it.

Steelers over the Raiders
Biggest surprise of the season for me so far:  An ineffective Darren McFadden. He's not injured is he? Because that wouldn't be a surprise.

Patriots over the Ravens
What a pleasant gift it was to see the Cardinals take down the Pats at home last week. How the hell did that happen?  In this game it will be the QB who says he's the best in the game (Flacco) against the QB who could legitimately make that claim.

Packers over the Seahawks
I did like how the Pack got Cedric Benson involved last week but it's definitely time for some Green Bay explosiveness don't you think? Nobody throws a prettier deep ball than Aaron Rodgers.


Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 16-16 (.500)

NFL Picks: Week 2

NFL Picks: Week 2

• Packers over the Bears
  I saw this one coming. Or at least I've convinced myself of that by now. Good to see the Packers haven't abandoned the run entirely. Cedric Benson got some work in and though Rodgers had to work for it, he looked reasonably good throwing the ball. Not razor sharp but certainly not close to the seeping pile of QB sewage that Cutler was that night. Ouch. Too harsh?.......Nah, it's Jay Cutler.
  
• Bills over the Chiefs
  Rebound opportunity for someone here. Both need it bad after giving their fan bases glimpses of hope over the last couple of years and then snatching that hope away with inconsistent play and by being plagued with  untimely injuries.  I'm interested if C.J. Spiller can replicate even on a modest scale what he did last week. Both Fitzpatrick and Cassel need to play significantly better or calls for their heads begin Sunday night. They are in Buffalo and it's a toss up for me so I'm going with the home team.
  
• Bengals over the Browns
  
  --speaking of QBs on the hot seat, Brandon Wheedon, the vet of 1 game, is already being thrown under the bus. A passer rating under 10 as well as being eaten by a giant American flag will do that for you. His flag incident  was an ironic and unfortunate metaphor for being swallowed by the opposing defense and expectations of week 1. I'm rooting for you Brandon. You're an older rookie due to your failed baseball career (look for that to be brought up each week till we need to vomit), but hey you took a shot and that's commendable and when it didn't work out you went back to school, got some education and had a great college football career.  I like the attitude. Plus you've got  a hot wife,  What's not to root for?
• Vikings over the Colts.
  I really want the Colts to win this. I'll admit it. I'm drinking the kool-aid and I like Andrew Luck. He's humble, hardworking, athletic, and although Jim Irsay doesn't deserve him, I wish him success in Indy. However, I'll concur with my wife that the neckbeard needs to be avoided at all costs this year. Keep that razor handy Andrew. If your significant other is like mine, that crap's got to be shaved before your getting "any".
  --Hallelujah for the return of Adrian Peterson. We need the good old days again. 60 yard runs with guys hanging off you...it's not too much to ask for right?
  
• Panthers over the Saints. 
  
  Dangerous game for New Orleans. All these stats are being thrown around right now about 0-2  teams and their lack of success in making the playoffs. Starting off that way is disappointing but if anybody could resurrect a season after that it would be Drew Brees. I've got Cam Newton as a fantasy QB this week so I'm hoping a little home cooking can help him capture some of that rookie 2011 magic.
• Texans at Jags
  I'm not sure how good their defense is yet, but if Foster, Schaub, and Johnson are healthy and in sync this should be a Texan victory.
• Raiders over the Dolphins
  Oakland without Al Davis isn't as fun to mock. No more Weekend at Bernie Jokes.  Maybe we can make fun of the arm that Carson Palmer used to have. He and the Raiders looked sluggish last week.
  If the Dolphins weren't breaking in a rookie QB that was mildly heralded during the off-season then they would be about as irrelevant as possible. And that's after spending training camp on HBO's Hard Knocks. Think about it, your every move is watched for weeks on cable and still we don't care. Man do I pine for the glory days of the 80s when I was kid and watching Marino torch defenses with Duper and Clayton as sidekicks.  If you have no idea what I'm talking about you need to hit youtube right now and see the 80s version of the 2011 Packers.
  
• Pats over the CardinalWhat's the line on this? 40 points? Shouldn't be that close.
  
• Giants over the Bucs
  Nice win last week for Tampa but the defending champs are at home and they are still good. At least I think they are. Josh Freeman will be sacked.
• Ravens over the Eagles
  Vick and Philly were lucky last week and they know it. They run into Ed Reed and a proud defense this weekend and it will take more than luck to score on them. And is it just me or has Ed Reed looked the same since he came into the league?  When healthy he plays the same as he always has.which is to say, freakishly awesome! Far and away my favorite defensive back of all time.
• Redskins over the Rams
  Prepare for non-stop RG3 hype. If he starts of with a couple of wins in dominating fashion there will be no end to it.  D.C. is due though right? First the Nationals and now the Skins. Griffin is just what they need and he looks to be damn good. Now the Rams get an up close and personal look at what they could have drafted.
• Cowboys over the SeahawksDo I start Jason Witten at TE for my fantasy team? Whats up with his spleen? Of course I'm concerned for his health and not just my fantasy stats. So anyway, could you please score two TDs this week Jason? Thanks. Break a leg....I mean.....
• Steelers over the JetsI saw an article this week that read "Jets and Tebow to take on the Steelers". Wow. Disrespect Mark Sanchez like that at your own risk. He may just dare to have another good game.
•   Chargers over the TitansSan Diego's kicker won their game for them last week (with some help from the defense as well) and now they take on a team I have absolutely no feel for. At least with Jeff Fisher I could count on 8-8 most years. These Titans are an enigma to me. I'm banking on less than .500 based on their QB situation, but we'll see.
  
• 49ers over the Lions
  Hard to pick against San Fran right now. Based on the last season and the first game of this season they look good. Real good.  Good thing Detroit has Megatron because they'll need somebody freaky like him to beat that defense. I don't think it will happen this week. My biggest excitement over this game is the coach's handshake. Hugs? Punches? Look away while barely touching palms? Can I bet on this?
• Falcons over the BroncosThe Manning hype takes a bit of a dip this week as Atlanta continues with their new offense that Santa left in their stocking this past off-season. Why weren't they targeting Julio Jones more last season??
  
  Sorry for the formatting. I hate the formating tool on this blog. I can't get the spacing right between bullet points. It messes with it when publishing. 

Last Season: 154-98 (61%)

Last Week: 6-10.  Yikes.

NFL 2012: Finally

NFL 2012: Finally

I'm back and so is Football! The sweet smell of pigskin and perspiration is in the air (the latter being not so sweet). I always wonder how I survive the long dreary and dry months between seasons.  NFL news and the draft just don't do it for me especially when the news is full of concussion related stuff (the scary reality of the nature of this sport is too much for me. I want blissful ignorance).  Anyway, I'm ready for some football and I have some things I'll be watching out for in this coming NFL season.

Quarterbacks: 

• Will Payton Manning's neck snap and will his head fall off? This is the most cringeworthy story to watch. Every game he gets hit I'll be watching for signs of problems. Now that he's in Denver I'll see more of his games since I'm in the Mountain time zone. I used to be upset that my AFC Sunday afternoon game was always  Denver. Now I'll be morbidly interested in these games.
• Which rookie quarterbacks will play well and which ones will be yanked or knocked out the fastest? I like Wilson in Seattle.Reminds me of Drew Brees.  I'm interested in Luck and Griffin.Will the talent we saw last year in those guys shine this year? The speed of the NFL often turns good looking college QBs into sniveling piles of crappy signal callers. Think back to the fantastic college careers of Vince Young and Matt Leinart. Now think of their NFL careers. Yikes. The two that I'm guessing will crash and burn the fastest are Tannehill and Weeden. But the games have yet to be played and maybe they'll surprise me.
• Will 5,000 yards be as easy as it was last year? Brady, Stafford, Brees all got there and others came close. I like the passing game a lot but it is getting ridiculous out there.
• How fast will my Rams regret not taking Griffin III once Sam Bradford takes the field. One game? Two? The idea on passing on Griffin was that Bradford just needs a team around him and that last year was an anomaly. But have you watched him pass the ball in the past year and a half? It's ugly. He's inaccurate and skittish. I'm doubtful that he can become what he's hope to be. 

Receivers

• Will Justin Blackmon become a TD beast or a TD bust? Some of the most amazing catches I've ever seen in college came from this guy. He's not super tall but his arms are freakishly long. He'll play longer than he is.
• Can Austin Collie stay on the field? Not a major story for all, but since I've followed him since college I'm on the Austin Collie head watch as well. That guy has the worst luck with the angle of hits. He was on his way to being a breakout receiver for Manning two years ago and then the Colt horseshoe became unlucky for him. Manning was done in Indy just as he was becoming his favorite target and then concussions came one after another. Now he's one head shot away from retirement in his 20s.

Running Backs

• Who will claim title as best back this year? It's gone back and forth past few years. Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones Drew. Most of the time rushing yards can tell you who had the best year but it's not necessarily the rushing champion who always has the best year. If the Back has lots of yards and blows everyone away with yards per average and TDs then that's a better indication of his prowess. Lots of contenders this year. The group mentioned above of course as well as Jamaal Charles (high yds per carry), Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Murray, Lynch, and some other sleepers could make a run for it. I think Foster and Charles if they stay healthy have the best shot this season. 

Tight Ends

• Is it another monster season for Tight Ends? Gronkowski and Graham had breakout years last year with wide receiver numbers.  Those two firmly yanked the title of best tight ends in the game from Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Tony Gonzalez (who are still good but are a bit older and show some signs of fading). 

Defense

• Will Revis Island still rule in NY? Revis is the best corner I've seen in a long time but their window for dominance is short unless your name is Deion Sanders or Darrell Green.
• Will this be a weird year where the Baltimore offense is better than their defense? I'm not sure how long Lewis and Reed can anchor that defense and keep it dominant.
• Will Ndamukong Suh avoid the wrong kind of headlines this year? That guy was the definition of bad press last year. 

Should be fun again this year.

Picks for the first week:

Giants over Cowboys (oops)

Bears over the Colts

Lions over the Rams

Eagles over the Browns

Patriots over the Titans  (the Pats have a ridiculously easy schedule.....Again.!) 

Chiefs over the Falcons

Vikings over the Jags

Saints over the Redskins

Bills over the Jets

Texans over the Dolphins

Packers over the 49ers

Seahawks over the Cardinals

Panthers over the Bucs

Steelers over the Brocos

Bengals over the Ravens

Raiders over the Chargers

Predictions for the year.  It will be funny to look at these a few months from now. 

NFC East: Giants 

NFC North: Packers

NFC South: Saints

NFC West: 49ers

AFC East: Patriots 

AFC North: Steelers

AFC South: Houston

AFC West: Denver (if Manning's healthy, if not this is the worst pick of the bunch). 

NFC Wild Cards: Cowboys, Bears

AFC Wild Cards: Ravens, Raiders

Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Packers. Packers the winner. 

NFL Super Bowl Review

Other than a nice catch by Mario Manningham and a powerful Giants time eating drive to get the game winning score I thought the Super Bowl was pretty boring. Still, I'll take boring if it means Belichik and Brady go down in flames.

Keys to the game.

• The acrobatic Manningham catch. Was a great catch. It helped move the Giants down the field for a score.  Now I get that we want to compare it to the Tyree catch in the last Pats/Giants Super Bowl , and it does have a wow factor to it,  but let's not get carried away here. It wasn't 3rd down or even 4th down. It was 1st down. No desperation in this throw or catch like the Tyree catch. Don't get me wrong......Great catch....just not as great as Chris Collinsworth was making it out to be. It didn't win the Super Bowl, it was just part of the win. 
• Welker dropping a tough but catchable ball deep into the 4th quarter. Ouch. He usually makes those catches. I hate that little bastard. 
• To me the biggest keys to the game were the 2 NY fumbles that were recovered by Giants players. If those are lost fumbles, the Patriots win this game, especially since the one by Bradshaw came in the 4th quarter inside the 20 yard line. That's a short field for the Patriots and sure score. 
• The bounces didn't go the Patriots way this time and I'm not sure if the universe was trying to correct itself due to the breaks going New England's way in the AFC Championship game (when Baltimore should have won that game) or if it was because I spent a little extra time on the details for my matching set of Brady and Belichick voodoo dolls. It's all in the details.....and the right kind of pins. 

So now we get to hear a ton of debate about whether Eli is better than Payton Manning. Please. Eli was pretty good in this game. Not great. Pretty good, and really good on the final drive. But for his career? I don't buy it. Payton Manning kept the Colts in the Super Bowl hunt for years....pretty much all by himself. His owner never surrounded him with any kind of defense. Eli has won 2 Super Bowls where his defense has been critical for the success of the team. Give Payton some of those Giant defenses and we'd be talking multiple rings for him too. Now I'm not saying that Eli can't still surpass his big brother. He has time. H'e'll never have the passing records Payton has but as you saw this past season, younger brother can throw the ball pretty well when he's asked to do it a lot. He seems to be getting better and if he wins more championships then it will be fair to ask this question again. 

I was prepared to mope and mourn again after a Patriot win but thankfully the football gods decided otherwise. I'm happy for the Giants but I would much rather have seen the Saints or the Packers win the whole thing. That's the only downer for me in this playoff season. However, from now on if New England is is ever in the Super Bowl again, I know who I want facing them. NY has their number. 

NFL Conference Championship Review

Patriots/Ravens
A fairly good Baltimore defensive effort was wasted by a terrible field goal try. I'm a former high school kicker (keep that on the down low though will you....chicks never dig the kicker) and I could not believe how bad he hooked that thing. Everything was set up for a Raven win. They kept the Pats under 24 points, forced Brady and others into turnovers and still.....it was not to be. Patriot luck is back. A touchdown catch that should have been secured by the Ravens to end the game....a missed kick in to send it to overtime....aghhh.. I can't stand the idea of the Patriots in another Super Bowl. This is a team that played mostly losing or .500 teams the entire season and post-season. They had to be giggling like school girls when the Steelers went down to the Broncos. Year after year they have almost no competition in their division, so the playoffs are almost automatic.....and it's driving me crazy.  It's up to the Giants to take these guys down. Speaking of which....

Giants/49ers.
Were the defenses that good or were the offenses unusually bad?  I think it was the defense. Lots of sacks; coverages were tight. Other than a few good runs and two deep balls to Davis, Alex Smith was a bit disappointing. An no I'm not going to say it. ---I'm not. You want me to say, "what do you expect, it was Alex Smith" don't you?  But I'm giving Smith props for his year and if he played well in the season, and in his first playoff game, why shouldn't I expect it again?  But I'll admit I thought Smith blew some throws in the last few minutes. and he wasn't great. Not terrible, but nothing to whistle about.  The guy who is going to need therapy though is that back-up kick returner. Blew the game. No doubt about it. Two turnovers equaling 10 points for the Giants means he's the goat.

So now we got Eli against Brady for all the marbles. But I'm not expecting another miracle catch this time around. The Giant defense is going to have to do what the Ravens did today (make Brady average) and Eli is going to have to play much better. I think the Giants will need at least 27 points to beat the Patriots, ...more if the defense falters.

I'll check the score after the game. I never watch Patriot Super Bowl games live. I'm chicken that way. If the Pats win I won't be forced to watch ....and if the Giants win I'll happily watch the recorded game without stress. I wish I could say I'm better than that. I"m not.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Review

Well........I guess that's why don't crown anyone in November eh?

The two most dominant teams before Christmas, the Saints and the Packers went down in flames this weekend. And I'm bummed. The tantalizing re-match between those two teams was not to be and that sucks.

Packers/Giants.
Turnovers were the bane of both Green Bay and New Orleans. These are very different games (and I think outcomes) if the Saints and Packers don't give the other team essentially free points. The Giants defense was tough but the Packers killed themselves. They are going to be sick about this one all winter. They were one of the most dominant regular season teams I have seen in the last two decades of  watching football. It felt like the 85 Bears, and a couple of the Cowboy teams in the 90s. .....And now they're a footnote. Like the 07 Patriots. Except these guys didn't even make it past their first playoff game. I don't care that NY is a good team and peaking at the right time. The Packers roasted teams all season long! They didn't just get a nice schedule and win a bunch of close games.....They killed their opponents.  They should not have looked this bad against anybody. Rodgers looked rusty and so did his receivers. The defense was shaky at times (just like during the season) but without turnovers of their own (which were surprisingly absent) an no offense to bail them out, the result was bad  Lambeau loss. This is the most disappointing playoff game I've seen in a long time. Well....maybe not a long time...maybe just since Saturday when the Saints lost.

Saints/49ers
On the one hand, I've been a fan of Alex Smith since his Utah Ute days so I was happy to see him do well. On the other hand Alex just tore the heart out of one my favorite teams in the league. Brees had another killer season with nothing to show for it. Stupid turnovers and a defense that can't stop anything were a recipe for disaster. It was crazy how I sat and watched the Saints last score and said to my wife (who could care less of course) "too soon.. Too soon. They left too much time on the clock for Smith. That defense won't stop em".  Those were my words and I was calm as I prophesied. Having watched this defense all season, I knew their risk-taking style worked against bad teams and bad quarterbacks but on this day they were playing neither. I know that's weird to say about Smith. But he was "on" all day. His passes were crisp and especially when Vernon Davis was manned up, he didn't miss him. I wish them good luck against the Giants. They'll need it and a lot more of the mojo they displayed Saturday with the way NY is playing.  As for New Orleans, they had better get themselves a defense or they'll waste the prime years of Drew Brees' career. It's got to be frustrating for him to sit on the sidelines knowing that he has to match another team's offense as they score on his defense at will. He knows his offense can make no mistakes or it's over. Unfortunately for him, they did indeed shoot themselves in the foot. They've got lots of time to think about it now.

Ravens/Texans
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..z.............zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..huh...zzzzz. huh....oh, yeah, there was a game on earlier on Sunday wasn't there. As expected, this game sucked. The one watchable aspect of it was the defense of Ed Reed. I've a big fan of Ed Reed and his human flytrap hands. The guy is one those defensive backs that could have been a receiver. He doesn't drop much if it comes his way. Ball hawk!  The Ravens are the opposite of the Saints. Their offense is frustrating to watch and is something they never seem to get fixed. They have their spots. There have been games where Flacco has played very well. And Ray Rice has had numerous games where he has played like a stude. But do you trust that to happen against the Patriots? Even with a shaky defense and having watched two great offenses go down this weekend, I still wouldn't bet on the Raven offense getting it together. It will have to be the defense that wins the game against New England. As much as like the Ravens defense I'm not optimistic about it.

Patriots/Broncos
Some people actually believed this was going to give us some more Tebow magic. Not me. The Broncos have some comeback wins to be sure but when they were down 3 touchdowns in the blink of an eye you knew it was over. It wasn't a Tebow miracle that was needed, it was a Denver defensive show that should have been on the menu. But it wasn't and so we'll have to wait until next season to ride the Tebow train again. As much as I like Tim, I think the time in between will do us both some good.

I'm torn on who will win the NFC championship. It's a "pick-em" game for me but I'm leaning towards the Giants. They should meet the wicked kingdom of Belichick and Brady for the big game.

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Review

Broncos/Steelers
I'm absolutely sick about the Bronco win against the Steelers. I felt like Pittsburgh was the only team that could possibly block the Patriots march to the Super Bowl.  Now the team that the Pats demolished in New England a few weeks back is heading back for more punishment. It will take more than a good game by Tebow to do the trick. Denver will need to force turnovers by Brady.

Texans/Bengals.
Not too surprising of a result. Dalton is a rookie and he made some rookie mistakes. Arian Foster was a beast. If he can keep healthy next year he could challenge for the rushing title.  I think this is it though for the Texans but would love to see them surprise me and a few others.

Saints/Lions
For my money this was the most entertaining game. Stafford had it right that they need to get home field advantage next year to increase their odds of going far in the playoffs. They are much better in Detroit. Still, Brees is hot and not much can slow the Saints down except themselves. It's been turnovers that have killed them in the playoffs before so they need to watch out for that in the next game. Their defense is very suspect so they'll need to continue to put up a lot of points and hang onto the ball.

Giants/Falcons
Another Falcon meltdown in the playoffs. Matt Ryan is a big part of their regular season success, but he's been a huge part of their playoff disappointments as well. He just hasn't looked good when it counts.  Until he does, the Falcons will continue with the early exits in the post-season.  And how about the Falcons inability to convert "must-have" fourth and short and third and short in this game?  Atalanta needs  a lot more ingenuity on those plays. And I don't want to hear the old "if we can't convert 1 yard then we don't deserve to win" crap. That's the biggest douchebag rationalization I've ever heard. It would be more accurate to say "if your coaches are less creative in their play-calling than a block of wood" then you deserve to lose.

I'm looking forward to next week's games. By the way, DVRs are saving my marriage. Live games are still better if I can swing it and I have to be more careful to not hear the results of games but I love the digital world we live in.

NFL: Playoff Preview

 In terms of picks, I finished the season 11-5, and overall 154-98 (61%)  Not great, but not terrible either. Of course I don't pick the spread which is much more difficult. But I don't gamble so I could care less about final scores.

NFC
Some thoughts about next week. I'm bummed that the Saints aren't a 2 seed. I would have loved the potential for a championship game and rematch between the Saints and Packers. The 49ers have been great this year but I don't remember a single game where they were on TV (and they were on a lot here in the West) that I said, "I've got to see that game".  I don't have anything against them. I like Alex Smith, I like Frank Gore, I like Patrick Willis. They just don't excite me.  
 --Having said that, although the Saints were exciting and very good last year they choked to the Seahawks, so nothing is guaranteed even if Brees and company had grabbed the 2 spot this year. Thankfully there is no Seahawk type team in the NFC this year that can come in, ruin things and give us a crappy playoff championship matchup. Although the Falcons are sometimes boring, I think any of the NFC teams that can play there way to the Super Bowl would be fine with me. My preference would be the Saints, followed by the Lions, Packers, 49ers, Giants and Falcons. Initially my prediction is that it will be the Packers and the Giants in the NFC Championship, with the Pack heading back to the Super Bowl.

AFC 
Over in the AFC it gets much more ugly. You've got your annual team that shouldn't be in the playoffs. This year's Seattle Seahawks would be the Denver Broncos who finished 8-8 with 3 straight terrible losses. If you didn't know the name of the QB in Denver, and you were just looking at statistics for the past 3 games, there is no way in your right mind you start him for the playoffs right? But that's the polarizing aspect of Tebow. He will start and for the sake of the quality of play for the rest of the playoffs I hope he sucks again and the Broncos go down ( I'm jumping out of the way of the lightning bolt right now). I like Tebow. I hope my 2 daughters grow up to marry a guy just like him. I just wish he could throw the damn ball.

The Chargers are the best team in the AFC West, but once again they are missing the playoffs. How is Norv Turner still a coach?  They have to be one of the most glaring underachieving groups in the past 5 years. In his first season in San Diego, Turner gave hope to San Diego as he led the Chargers to the AFC championship game. The next season they finished a disappointing 8-8. They did get  into the playoffs and upset the Colts in the first round (damn you Darren Sproles) but it was not the year they had expected. In 09 they had a great regular season but were bounced in their playoff game by the Jets.   The next year they started slow again (a trend under Turner, finished fairly strong but missed the playoffs. They do the same in 2011. Time for Turner to get the boot. The Chargers are consistently inconsistent. That's coaching.

The Bengals could definitely win a game against the Texans (who seem to be anticipating a one and done themselves) but this division should end up with New England and Baltimore in the championship game. However, I don't know that this would be a great game.   Do you trust Joe Flacco in the playoffs? I don't. If I were New England I'd load up on Ray Rice and dare Flacco to beat you. If it's a shootout between Brady and Flacco, I'll take the Hall of Famer.  I would rather see the Steelers in the championship game but I do think it will be Baltimore and the Patriots with New England going to the Super Bowl. I know I pick the Pats every year and they've blown it every year since the Super Bowl debacle against the Giants in 08,.....and I know their defense has holes everywhere,.....but Brady has looked as good as I've seen him since 07. As much as it pains me, I think Belichick and Brady are headed back to the big game. Now that fantasy season is over and Brady is no longer my fantasy QB, I can return to loathing him and focusing my time on Patriot hate, a hate that has defined my very existence since they beat my Rams in the Super Bowl. ("defined my existence" may be a bit strong....but Brady, his coach and his team take up a unhealthy amount of my negative energy that I usually reserve for evil dictators, that bald spot growing on the top of my head, Bill Maher, Nancy Pelosi, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Lebron James, the cast of Jersey Shore, and that damn little neighbor dog that keeps pooping on my lawn).   But I digress.....I will hope the Steelers can take care of business with the Broncos, upset the Patriots, beat the Ravens or Bengals and head to the big game. I like the idea of a Steeler/Saints, Steerlers/Lions or Steelers/Packers Super Bowl.

NFL Picks: Week 17

Saints over the Panthers
Brees needs to play and pass in this game or Brady has a shot to overtake him and claim the Marino record for himself. That would be awkward after we already went through the coronation of Brees as the new master of the pass.

Patriots over the Bills
The Bills don't ever win in Foxboro so this is the safe pick.

Vikings over the Bears.
What a bad ending for Chicago. When Cutler and Forte were clicking earlier in the season it looked like the playoffs were a lock and they might even give the Packers a scare. The Cutler injury crapped all over everything. That's why the QB is the most valuable player on the entire team (Indy players nodding sadly).

Jets over the Dolphins
I'm looking forward to the Revis/Marshall battle.

49ers over the Rams
Don't start trying now St. Louis. Draft order matters.

Lions over the Packers
I'm trying to sell this one to myself. The only thing I got is perhaps the Pack will rest Rodgers and other starters in the 2nd half.

Eagles over the Redskins
Too little too late for Philly. We'll look forward to a better year in 2012. As I've said before, the NFL is better off with the Eagles and Michael Vick relevant and winning.

Jags over the Colts
Indy loses and now we have to endure the Luck talk for months. Shoot me now.

Titans over the Texans
Houston will probably exit early in the playoffs. That Schaub injury wasn't as devastating as the Bear's losing Cutler, but it kills their playoff chances.

Seahawks over the Cardinals
The hawks have won 6 of their last 8 and a large part of that can be attributed to the resurgence of Marshawn Lynch. After the 4th game of the season he turned on the jets.

Broncos over the Chiefs
If the Broncos win then they are in the playoffs and we have an offseason of stories about the promise and hope of Tebow. If they lose then we will deal with tons of speculation on whether Tebow starts next year or is even traded. Even if Oakland loses and the Bronocs back into the playoffs with a loss we'll still see the latter version of events that I mentioned. They'll most likely be a one and done team in the playoffs and that would mean 4 straight losses to end the year.

Falcons over the Bucs
Raheem Morris has one more game before the axe falls. You can't lose 9 straight and survive can you? He ought to pull out every trick play in the book. Hard to believe this team was 4-2 to start the season. I actually think they ought to give their coach one more year. Last season was good for him. Maybe this year is an aberration.

Ravens over the Bengals
This a Baltimore team that will face doubts about their offense in the playoffs. The Ravens scored over 24 points 5 times in the first 8 weeks. Things were clicking. Since week 9....over 24 points just once.

Steelers over the Browns
Pittsburgh would be better off if Batch could play and win again. Roethlisbeger could use another week to rest the injured ankle.

Chargers over the Raiders
To me the Raiders are a success whether they go to the playoffs or not. They were a joke for so long that their gritty play the past two seasons have won my respect.

Giants over the Cowboys
If Manning has Nicks and Manningham back from injury then it will be tougher for the Cowboy defensive backs to focus solely on Victor Cruz.

Last week: 11-5
Overall: 143-93 (61%)

I know the playoffs are exciting but I'm always a bit bummed out by the end of the regular season. I'm like the kid mourning the end of Christmas before Christmas day has arrived.

NFL Picks: Week 16

Texans over the Colts

I never should have underestimated the fire that Payton Manning was willing to light under his teammates. You could see it in his face on Thursday night. "Win one for me guys!" Or in other words, "win one for me so Luck isn't drafted and we can avoid the drama that comes with that mess".  

Chiefs over the Raiders

I don't know what to think of the Raiders running game or passing game. It's hit and miss for both. I know Michael Bush has filled in admirably for their backfield but I would really have like to see Darren McFadden healthy this year. Do you remember the burst he had earlier in the season? He was being talked about as the best RB in the game. Now he's just that guy that we know is good who's always injured.   

Titans over the Jaguars

The Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew....and that's it. What a season by that guy!  He might end up winning the rushing title this year, which would be the lone bright spot in a season from hell.  Jack Del Rio should have been fired at least 3 years ago. 

Patriots over the Dolphins

The Fins have been downright plucky in the 2nd half of the season.  Shouldn't matter this week. The Pats offense should shred the Miami defense.

Bengals over the Cardinals

Best rookie on the Cincy Squad?  Dalton? I say it's A.J.  Green. A stud at receiver. 

Broncos over the Bills

McGahee mania! Right?!  Willis McGahee comes back to the town he started as a rookie and where infamously proclaimed himself  the best running back in the game.  Pretty clear that was never a true statement but it's also evident that we wouldn't be talking about Tebow so much right now if McGahee hadn't ran as well as he did in at least 4 of the wins in the past month and a half. . 

Steelers over the Rams

 Roethlisberger is out. Charlie Batch is in. Batch is has been around since the Jurassic Age and has been serviceable but if your a Steeler fan then you should be scared of the Rams this week. St. Louis stinks and should be tanking this game for a draft pick but remember they took out the Saints earlier in the year. 

Giants over the Jets

Besides the NY that precedes their names these teams really are very similar. They can can be great defensively on occasion.....they probably should be better than they are but tend to disappoint.....and they get more attention than they deserve. Certainly Eli is a better QB than Sanchez but in the past few seasons Sanchez has come up big at the end of the season.  Maybe this year is different for Eli and he can channel some 2007-08 magic. 

Redskins over the Vikings

Irrelevant game of the week.

Panthers over the Buccaneers

All I really care about in this game is watching Cam Newton and Steve Smith. Seriously, is there anything else remotely interesting about it?

Ravens over the Browns

McCoy is out again. and the Ravens defense (despite last week's shalacking by the the Chargers) should shut down anything Cleveland plans to do. The Colt McCoy concussion experience is something that used to happen every week in the NFL. The only reason it's gotten so much press is the current league crackdown and awareness about concussions.....which I think is good. Let's just not pretend this is something new. Sending a guy back in after a serious concussion has been commonplace in the league since it began. The guy who's the biggest douche in the whole thing is Mike Holmgren. His lame excuses about why McCoy went back in are almost comical. 

Lions over the Chargers

Detroit should be very worried that they are getting the "good" Chargers instead of the bad Charger team that slept walked through the middle of the season. 

Cowboys over the Eagles

I know that Philly is the popular pick here and honestly I almost think that the Eagles could pull this miracle playoff seed out in the last couple of weeks. But I can't buy those odds with this Eagles team. 

49ers over the Seahawks

Alex Smith has been pretty good this year. Not great, but pretty good. Still, unless he can make more of the big plays on 3rd down or in the Red Zone this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs.

Packers over the Bears

It will be interesting to watch what the Packers do in regards to protecting their guys for the playoffs without losing their edge. 

Saints over the Falcons

tough one.  These guys are rivals and know how to play each other's strengths and weaknesses. This should be close.

Last Week: 5-11

Overall: 132-88 (60%)

NFL Picks: Week 15

Jags over the Falcons 
Not sure what I was thinking here. I haven't totally bought into Atlanta yet I guess.

Cowboys over the Bucs
The Tampa coach is toast. Morris better start looking for a real estate agent.

Texans over the Panthers
Houston used to lose games they should have won. This year they've been unusually clutch.

Giants over Redskins
Defense is starting to pick it up and Manning and Cruz have been great.

Bills over the Dolphins
They've got to rediscover that early season magic. I can't figure out what happened to Fitzpatrick.

Bears over the Seahawks
Lynch has been great but the Bears defense can still roar.

Saints over the Vikings

I wish Jared Allen could play for a contender. Definitely one of my favorite players to watch.

Bengals over the Rams

St. Louis is so bad I have conveniently forgotten that I'm a Ram fan. Unless I remind myself like I just did. Dammit.

Titans over the Colts

Remember early in the season when Indy was playing their hearts out? Freeney and Mathis were impossible to block. I stopped watching their games so I'm not sure when that fire went out for the team in general. Maybe for most of the Colts it died the minute they found out Manning was shelved. 

Packers over the Chiefs

I have never seen someone throw a prettier pass than Aaron Rodgers. It's like a clinic out there. Super strong arm, spirals out of a QB's wet dream, uncanny accuracy for deep, mid-range and short balls. Elusive, and fast for a QB. Now you look back and wonder how Favre wasn't pushed out earlier. 

Raiders over the Lions

Famous former dirty team meet the NFL's current dirty team. Watch your backs.

Patriots over the Broncos

Tebow has been fun to watch. And agonizing to watch. But let's stop with the comparisons to Brady this week. Please. Brady is one of the best of all time. Tebow may not even start next season. The mania needs to end. 

Jets over the Eagles

Something's not right in Philly this year. I'm not sure what it is but it stinks. 

Cardinals over the Browns

 I need yards and TDs out of Beanie Wells. My fantasy playoffs are starting.

Ravens over the Chargers

Its all about the defense and Ray Rice.

49ers over the Steelers

This would be a statement game if San Fran can pull it off.

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 127-77 (62%)

 

NFL Picks Week 14

Steelers over the Browns

I had this one picked when the schedules first came out.

Jets over the Chiefs

K.C is in flux and the Jets may be ready for a final push.

Bucs over the Jags

Tough one. It's in Jacksonville, but both teams have been so disappointing this season home field doesn't seem much of an advantage for either. It's time for Josh Freeman to recapture last season's consistency.

Patriots over the Redskins

I heard Colin Cowherd on the radio today saying this could be close. I'm not buying it. Patriots by 2 touchdowns at least.

Falcons over the Panthers

Matt Ryan looked bad last week. Really bad. His off games have convinced me that he'll never be an elite QB. But hey Atlanta, that's ok. In any given year there are only a few elite QBs. You can still win an Super Bowl with just a decent to good QB, provided you have some defense and running to pick up the slack.

Ravens over the Colts

I thought Archie Manning was spot on this last week in his comments about Manning and Luck and the negative aspects of having them play on the same team. Luck's too good to sit for 3 or 4 years if Manning heals. He needs to play soon. The Colts need to either part ways with Manning or swing a deal for picks and players and keep Manning around. Of course if Manning's neck is screwed and he has to retire then Indy will celebrate him and move on with Andrew Luck. I'm wondering now though if Luck will be the best pro out of the group of QBs coming into the NFL soon. Could Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin turn out to be better?

Dolphins over the Eagles

I want to pick Philly. They're in too much turmoil right not though. Miami is playing well and making a late season surge. I'm surprised to see Reggie Bush playing so well lately. He's showing signs that he could be a number 1 RB for a couple of years if given the chance.

Lions over the Vikings

I only care about this game because I want to see if the Lions will continue to implode.

Saints over the Titans

So Chris Johnson is finally starting to get his mojo back. Right in time to help beat my fantasy team. One more reason to hate. He may well run through the Saints defense like it's made of swiss cheese but the Saints can score too.

Bengals over the Texans

Without a solid QB, some would-be wins will be losses. It's inevitable.

Broncos over the Bears

Why not?

49ers over the Cardinals

Defense is winning games for San Fran.

Bills over the Chargers

Chargers are at home but Monday night's win still hasn't convinced me that they have things figured out.

Packers over the Raiders

I feel bad for Darren McFadden. There is a possibility that the last 2 years he could have been the best running back in the land. Instead he's injury prone and losing another season in his prime.

Giants over the Cowboys

it's a crap shoot with these guys.

Seahawks over the Rams

What used to be a good rivalry has fizzled and become perhaps one of the least desired games to watch of the 2011 season.

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 116-72 (62%)

NFL Picks: Week 13

Eagles over the Seahawks

This is probably a crazy pick since the Eagles are a mess and they have to go cross country to Seattle to play. Not an easy place to win even when you have a superior team.

Panthers over the Bucs

I'm fairly disappointed in the development of Josh Freeman this year. He's regressed from last season. In fact it seems like everybody has regressed in Tampa, even the coach. And you know what?---The Bucs missed a great opportunity to bring in Ronde Barber's twin brother Tiki as a running back this year. I know he's mid thirties, hasn't played in 4 years and is a real deuche but at least it would have been interesting. That's a word you can't apply to the Bucs right now. Tiki retired as one of the top two running backs in the game in 2006. Do you realize in his final 3 years he rushed for 1500 yards, 1800 yards , and 1600 yards. That's pretty damn good. If he hadn't been so insufferable and had played a couple more years we'd be talking about it him as one of the all-time greats. However, "what ifs" are not reality. Since we didn't get a chance to see Barber in action again, what we do know is that Tiki's just a really good ex-football player, a failed broadcaster, and the dude who dumped his pregnant wife for a younger chick.

Anyway, back to the game this week....Cam Newton is a beast so I guess I'll go with Carolina based solely on that shallow analysis.

Steelers over the Bengals

This feels like a game the Bengals could win. They are tougher than expected this year and Andy Dalton and A.J. Green represent an amazing draft for them this past spring. Still, this contest is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers are always good at home so I'll go with them. It was funny to listen to the announcers of the game last week almost apologize for the fact that the Steelers are a passing team now. Like it's a sacrilegious thing in Steel Town. Until they get some stars in the backfield, Pittsburgh better utilize Roethlisberger and those receivers he's got. They are the bread and butter right now.

Falcons over the Texans

We'll see if Houston can surprise me 2 weeks in a row. At some point the backup QB situation there has got to bite them. Right now the Falcons are playing well and have enough offensive firepower to compete against the strong Texan defense.

Jets over the Redskins

Mark Sanchez baffles me. He's the new Matt Hasslebeck. Good enough to tease you for awhile but probably not the guy to take you to the promised land.

Colts over the Patriots

..Just seeing if you were paying attention. That would be an amazing upset though. Upset of the decade for me. But no...I'm going with the Pats over the Colts. This line can't be high enough. Sad that this was a marquee matchup every year with Manning. One player is the difference between a playoff team and a potential winless season. Incredible. The Colts were built to pass the ball well and rush the opposing passer. Without the need to score 30 pts or more each week to keep up with Manning, teams can play the Colts anyway they want. And what they want is to crush Indy. So far, it's working.

Dolphins over the Raiders

Miam is showing signs of life.

Broncos over the Vikings

Tebow might be the worst passer I've ever seen. But with the defense playing like they are lately and with Tebow and his backfield running over guys, maybe they can win a couple more before the music stops.

Bears over the Chiefs

Backup QB against backup QB. May the worst QB not win.

Bills over the Titans

frustrating time for Buffalo. What happened to the power of Fitzpatrick's beard? They have crashed and burned after starting with such promise. This is a must win if they hope to get back in contention for a Wild Card spot. QB better shave the beard to get some new karma.

Ravens over the Browns

Some consistency out of Joe Flacco would be a good.

Cowboys over the Cardinals

Arizona has some great fans but watch the stands, there will be loads of Cowboy fans there. Every western state die-hard Cowboy fan shows up in Arizona when the Cowboys come to town.

Packers over the Giants

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants pull this out. Their kind of schizophrenic that way. But the Packers have been so dominant you can't go against them. Their risk taking defense is their achilles heel but if your offense can score 40 every week a few mistakes won't kill you.

49ers over the Rams

The Ram's coach needs to be fired after this season. I had high hopes for Spagnuola but for whatever reason the Rams aren't turning things around. It starts with Bradford. He has to be better than he is. Much better.

Saints over the Lions

Other than the Packers, the Saints are the most entertaining team to watch on tv.

And concerning the MVP debate, unless the Pack falter, there really is no debate. It's Rodgers. But at least Brees has made it a conversation.

Chargers over the Jags

Pretty uninspiring game for a Monday night. The Chargers need to fire Norv Turner and A.J. Smith. How's that Rivers vs. Brees thing working out for you now A.J? I know Brees was hurt during the year San Diego let him go but Smith drafted Rivers to replace Brees before he knew that. He wasn't bringing him back no matter what. I think it's pretty clear the Drew Brees has been the better QB of the two. I love Drew Brees mainly because he's defied everyone's expectations of him. .........Except the Saints, they believed in him and were rewarded for it.

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 105-67 (61%)

NFL Picks: Week 12

It's the annual face stuffing event so no time for details about these picks. Pumpkin pie is calling.

Packers over the Lions

Cowboys over the Dolphins

49ers over the Ravens

Jaguars over the Texans

Jets over the Bills

Bengals over the Browns

The battle for Ohio

Falcons over the Vikings

Cardinals over the Rams

Panthers over the Colts

Bucs over the Titans

Raiders over the Bears

Redskins over the Seahawks

Chargers over the Broncos

Patriots over the Eagles

Steelers over the Chiefs

Saints over the Giants

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 93-63 (60%)

NFL Picks: Week 11

Jets over the Broncos

I can't see the Broncos getting enough offense to win this. The Jets are no offensive juggernaut either but they should be good for at least 14-17 pts. Right?. I'm thinking something like NY 17 Denver 10.

Update: I just checked the Thursday night score and it looks like I've been Tebowed. Damn you Tim Tebow. .......Wait....Forgive me Tim Tebow. Forgive me. I'm pretty sure you've got more pull with God so I need you on my side.

Packers over the Bucs

The only teams that have a shot at the Packers are those that can score and at the same time have a defense that can produce a few turnovers. I don't see the Bucs at this point with either of those qualities.

Lions over the Panthers

The Panthers haven't looked as explosive as late. Is Newton hitting the rookie "wall"? No big deal, with this being a rebuilding season a nice draft pick would help next year's team.

Jaguars over the Browns

Just give the ball to Maurice Jones Drew.

Raiders over the Vikings

Minnesota is 5th in the league against the run so maybe Michael Bush won't go nuts this week. The Raiders just seem tougher than the Vikes though.

Bills over the Dolphins

Buffalo needs to get going again. I'm extremely impressed with Fred Jackson this year. He's another Kurt Warner type who had to fight to get into the league (ever heard of the NIFL or the UIF?) His career so far in the NFL has been so-so and then comes crazy numbers like he's having now. Doesn't make sense. Too bad he's already 30. Talk about a late bloomer.

Cowboys over the Redskins

Murray, Romo, Dez Bryant, Ware, ----the Cowboys have some explosive guys and the Skins don't. That should be enough in this one.

Ravens over the Bengals

This would be a huge step for Cincy if they could pull out a win in Baltimore. The Ravens haven't lost at home yet this year so I can't give Dalton and the Bengals the nod this week.

49ers over the Cardinals

Sounds weird to say that an Arizona win over San Fran would be a major upset. From year to year, the NFL has the best turnaround stories.

Rams over the Seahawks

Yikes.

Falcons over the Titans

Chris Johnson seems to be coming alive the last couple of weeks but the Titans are so inconsistent they can't be trusted. The Falcons are solid though. By the way, I liked the 4th down "go for it" attitude by Atlanta coach Mike Smith last week. Gutsy. Sure, maybe their defense stops New Orleans and they get the ball back. But I would bet that statistically speaking, the Falcons had a better shot at making that first down than they would have had getting the ball back in OT had they punted. I'll tell you this though, I didn't like the type of play that was called. A misdirection play or even a QB sneak had a better chance than a hand off straight up the gut.

Bears over the Chargers

I really want to pick San Diego here. But they always burn me. Got to go with the hot team here.

Giants over the Eagles

Philly couldn't handle the Giants at home and recent play gives us no reason to expect that they could take them out in NY.

Patriots over the Chiefs

I don't care if ex-Pats brass are holing up now in K.C. They can't play on the field and it's the field where Brady should destroy the K.C. secondary.

Last Week: 5-10

Overall:84-58 (59%)

NFL Picks: Week 10

Chargers over the Raiders

A Thursday game that I thought would go the other way. Michael Bush torched the San Diego defense. The Raider offensive line deserves a lot of credit this season. McFadden or Bush seem to get their yards each week. For the Charger faithful it should be painfully obvious that Norv Turner is not a head coach that will ever lead a team to the promised land. He's a good coordinator and a mediocre head coach. Time to clean house in San Diego.

Eagles over Cardinals

If the Eagles lose this one the wailing and gnashing of teeth will commence in Philly. They have got to beat a bad Arizona team.

Panthers over Titans

Steve Smith's athleticism is a sight to behold. Cam Newton has been good but it's helped that he's had a receiver that goes up

Bucs over the Texans

My guess is that the Bucs are going to focus on the Texan run game and see if Schaub can beat them.

Dolphins over the Redskins

John Beck makes his return to Miami, going for revenge against the team that let him go. I'm sure the Fins are quaking in their cleats.

Jags over the Colts

Indy's season was over before this season began. I've been trying to find the clip where Manning nearly had his head ripped off a couple of years ago. If anyone has a link to it I'd like to see it. It's hits like that that got Manning where he is today.

Chiefs over the Broncos

Player I most miss this season? It's not Manning, it's Jamaal Charles. That guy was fun to watch last year. K.C. misses him.

Bills over the Cowboys

I think it will be tight. Maybe a field goal difference.

Falcons over the Saints

The one game I want to see this weekend. Should be a good one.

Browns over the Rams

I'm a Ram fan and I don't even want to watch this one.

Steelers over the Bengals

This wouldn't be that much of an upset if Cincy takes out Pittsburgh this week. They are perhaps the most surprising team of the year but seem to be legitimately good.

Ravens over the Seahawks

Last week's victory over the Steelers was impressive. Joe Flacco has been bad this year but you have to hand it to him on that final drive against Pittsburgh; he took a page out of the Roethlisberger textbook.

Giants over the 49ers.

The battle of two surprising QBs. I'm equally surprised with the tough defense San Fran has been playing this year.

Lions over the Bears

This will be a good test to see if Detroit can get it's swagger back.

Patriots over the Jets

I can't see the Pats losing 3 in a row. I mean, I would love it, I just don't think it will happen.

Packers over the Vikings

It's amazing that the Vikes almost went to the Super Bowl a couple of years back. Who knows how long it will take them to contend again and meanwhile the Pack seem set for years to come.

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 79-48 (62%)

NFL Picks: Week 9

Chiefs over the Dolphins
Miami has a better chance than you might think to steal one in K.C. But lately Dolphin football is a lesson in crazy so I'm going with the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Falcons over the Colts
Come on Indy! We need you to bail us out of the endless Andrew Luck/Payton Manning stories that will continue if you keep losing. Nobody wants to watch Luck ride the bench for 3-4 years if Manning heals up by next year. I know that's a big 'if" when you're talking about a neck injury but let's face it, if Manning plays again and the Colts have the number 1 pick, it's nothing but messy.

Saints over the Bucs
New Orleans is home but Tampa always plays the Saints tough so this one could be closer than expected. Who knows what to expect from the Saints? They just lost badly to the Rams last week so all year long we'll wonder which team will show up.

Bills over the Jets
I'm wondering if Plaxico Burress will even play this week with that bad back he has...but if he does I'm also wondering if I should start him in my fantasy league. 3 TDs last week was impressive. Can Sanchez find him again though?

Cowboys over the Seahawks
Demarcus Ware is a monster.

Texans over the Browns
Is Colt McCoy regressing? He should look to his counterpart  this week. Schaub doesn't seem to regress much. On the other hand he doesn't seem to improve much either. He's pretty steady and competent but can't seem to push it to the next level.

49ers over the Redskns
I wonder if the Niner's players ever get bugged about Jim Harbough getting all the credit for their turnaround? As long as they win, probably not.

Titans over the Bengals
I have no idea if Chris Johnson will ever be an elite running back again.It's like asking if Kim Kardashian will ever find love. In both cases, I could care less. Like Kim Kardashian, Johnson is an attention whore and thinks more of himself than than reality says he should. He's a home run hitter but if the big runs are gone, he's not the Titan's go-to guy. But whether Johnson helps Tennessee on Sunday or Javon Ringer does, or Hasselbeck does, I think they take down the surprising Bengals.

Raiders over the Broncos
Michael Bush is a capable fill-in for McFadden but what I'm really interested to see in this game is how Palmer fares at QB now that he has a couple of weeks in the Raider system.

Patriots over the Giants
 Two surprises for me in the leadup to this game. First, Eli Manning is having a really good first half of the season. After the mediocre year Eli had last season I figured maybe we had seen the best of what he had to offer. Apparently not. Second, Tom Brady started hot but has cooled a bit. His off games are still better than half the league. But only half. A lot of guys are throwing the ball well this year.

Cardinals over the Rams
I've lost hope in my Rams. The silver lining this week is that they are playing a team that's played nearly as bad as they have.

Packers over the Chargers
After last week's debacle I think San Diego would rather not see the best team in the league come to town.

Steelers over the Ravens
Supposedly these guys don't like each other. I think that's what makes this rivalry a good one.

Eagles over the Bears
I love watching LeSean McCoy run. To me he's a quicker and tougher version of Brian Westbrook.


Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 71-42 (63%)

NFL Picks: Week 8

Ravens over the Cardinals

Arizona has given no indication that they're ready to take on the big boys yet . Kolb has been a bust so far. I mean what do you do if you are Larry Fitzgerald? You're quite possibly the best receiver in the league and yet your value is being wasted in the desert. It's almost like we've forgotten about this guy. I agree with those who've pointed out Fitzgerald might have been better off waiting to sign an extension on his contract. I get that the money was big and security is never a bad thing but a receiver needs someone to throw him the ball. Kolb may not be that someone.

Panthers over the Vikings

It will be interesting to see if Jared Allen can chase cam Newton down.

Texans over the Jaguars

Arian Foster, when healthy, is in the discussion for top running back in the NFL.

Giants over the Dolphins

Reggie Bush says the Dolphins stink. I agree. But so what? I mean Miami has had an odor for years (the team, not the city...I have no idea what the city smells like....but I would love to find if someone would like to spring for an all-expense paid trip for me to investigate this).

Saints over the Rams

Good thing the Cardinal's World Series victory will keep minds off this shellacking. Hide your eyes kids, hide your eyes.

Titans over the Colts

I actually think the Colts could make this competitive. But only if they get over that public beatdown they got last week courtesy of the Saints. Have some pride Indy.

Lions over the Broncos

For an athletic guy, Tim Tebow can look pretty awkward in the pocket. To me he's tight end athletic or maybe even linebacker athletic. I got enough of a look at him last week to realize he can make some amazing plays and some of the ugliest plays I have ever seen. However, Tebow magic 20% of the time isn't going to win very many games when 80% of the time he looks so bad you want to put him out of his misery. Also, I don't get it, wasn't Brady Quinn the backup to Orton. So why is Tebow starting? I mean I'm all for it, I just don't understand it. If Tebow is listed 3rd on the depth chart how does he jump Quinn? Three explanations. One: he's seen as better than Quinn. Doubtful considering Coach Jon Fox's less than enthusiastic endorsement of Tebow. Second: he's not seen as better than Quinn which gives them a greater chance of losing and maybe being bad enough to get Andrew Luck. That also seems doubtful since Fox doesn't seem the type to tank games. So is it the 3rd option? Fox and Elway, are caving to fans in order to give them a taste of Tewbow hoping in this lost season they see him fail and then they can move on without the fan pressure? I'm hoping Tebow screws up everyone's plans by actually winning games.

Bills over the Redskins

Fitzpatrick just signed a nice deal with Buffalo. Hope he doesn't go and pull a "Chris Johnson" on us now. I love that I can use Johnson's name as a descriptive term for "got paid, now I'm gonna suck donkeys". Couldn't happen to a more deserving deuche. Anyway, I digress. I like Fitzpatrick and I tend to think he'll continue to work hard and be a decent QB. He's not got superstar DNA in him but then again not many QBs do.

Bengals over the Seahawks

Despite poor ownership and pretty crappy coaching for the past few years, the Bengals have managed to get lucky with some draft picks and look pretty decent this year.

49ers over the Browns

Is it time to believe in San Fran? I don't think a win over Cleveland really gives us that answer.

Patriots over the Steelers

Probably the game of the day. Or at least it should be on paper. The Patriots week off killed my fantasy team last week. I needed Brady as my QB. I hate rooting for him to do well just for fantasy purposes. I've been flogging myself each week with a spiked belt to purge the sin of it from my soul.

Eagles over the Cowboys

For Philly's sake let's hope it's not close. As good as Andy Reid has been over the years, he has to be one of the worst clock management/tight game situation coaches I've ever seen. He rivals Norv Turner of the Chargers. ...speaking of which...

Chargers over the Chiefs

Last week Norv Turner and Philip Rivers had one of the worst 2 minute drills to end a game that I have ever seen. Just amazingly pathetic. And yet I find myself thinking they should probably win this. That's what San Diego does. They're like the NFL's mafia. Just when you think you're out..they pull you back in. Come on K.C. help me resist. .....Crap. can't do it. Southern California bastards.

Last Week: 11-2

Overall: 62-38 (61%)

NFL Picks: Week 7

Lions over the Falcons.
I'm ticked off with Michael Turner for turning a sure fantasy win into a loss last week. Everything was going fine until he decided to be good again.

Jets over the Chargers
NY gets some swagger back this week.

Bears over the Bucs
If this game had been in Tampa, I'd take the Bucs but since they are going to be playing in London I'll say the Bears because Chicago offensive coordinator Mike Martz reminds me of a British guy I once knew. That's not a compliment for either of them.

Browns over the Seahawks
Must see tv. ......in Hell.

Panthers over the Redskins

I'd like to see John Beck do well as a QB but I just don't think it will happen. He's been a backup for a reason. Still, I'll be rooting for him just like I did when he was at BYU. When Grossman is good he's much better than Beck. Unfortunately for Grossman those good days only happen about 30% of the time. The other 70% of his games Grossman is the 2nd coming of Jamarcus Russell.

Broncos over the Dolphins

It's Tebow time. Fantastic, now maybe the media can have their Tebowgasm and get it over with. I like the guy but even he has to be sick of the endless debate of his abilities as a QB. Let's let me him play and see what happens.

Texans over the Titans

Matt Hasselbeck is being very unlike himself this season. He's actually been fairly efficient with a passer rating of nearly 96. Who would of thought he'd be more valuable than Chris Johnson?

Chiefs over the Raiders

Will Palmer play this week? Probably not but so what? He can't really be ready after just getting off the couch a few days ago. Now I know he's been working out and all but it's not the same as going to camp and and getting some pre-season snaps. Raiders are home but Kyle Boller doesn't inspire me.

Steelers over the Cardinals

I like Larry Fitzgerald a lot but his team doesn't have the overall quality of receivers that the Steelers do. Between Ward, Wallace and Brown, Rothlisberger has some nice options.

Packers over the Vikings

Shouldn't be close. The Pack are amazing this season.

Cowboys over the Rams

I don't want talk about my Rams. Can it get any worse?. Yep.

Saints over the Colts

What's up with the Saint's center quitting mid-season? Weird.

Ravens over the Jags

Ray Rice comes to Jacksonville. He meets his twin Maurice Jones Drew. Those two guys play the game the same way. Passion and hard running.

Last Week: 8-4
Overall: 51-36